Good evening! It's been a while, so today is a longer post 🙂
New trades:
- 2025-02-28 +28 QLD @ $102.20
- 2025-03-24 +50 TQQQ @ $66.09
- 2025-04-21 +70 TQQQ @ $41.62
- 2025-05-08 +60 TQQQ @ $60.33
- 2025-06-20 +11 QLD @ $107.64
- 2025-07-16 +24 QLD @ $119.29
- 2025-08-29 +25 QLD @ $124.20
The full portfolio is always available here: Intelinvest.ru/public-portfolio/210131.
The strategy hasn't changed. On strong drawdowns (e.g. when Trump-related volatility shook things in March–May) I added more of the higher-beta TQQQ; near new highs or close to them I add to the less risky QLD.
I'm subscribed to a lot of channels with deep coverage of foreign (including US) markets, and naturally everyone was screaming the world was ending, Trump didn't know what he was doing, AI capex is a bubble, and so on. The indices wobbled for a few months — those were exactly the right moments to add (and I added with whatever cash was available). NASDAQ-100 made new highs in July, QLD is at new highs, even TQQQ is approaching its peak — though by design it's harder for it to dig out of long deep drawdowns since it's a 3x leveraged fund.
I don't go too deep into US economic forecasting — my base case is that long term things have always worked out. Every year there's something — Covid, geopolitical conflicts, trade war with China — and the doomsayers shout that "America is collapsing." Then a few months later, in total silence, indices print new highs. That has been true for a hundred years and I expect it to keep being true. So my plan is unchanged: keep buying TQQQ on drawdowns, QLD on new highs.