Good evening!
Current portfolio - https://intelinvest.ru/public-portfolio/210131. There was a deal on tqqq and in the coming days another swift should arrive at interactive brokers, I’ll buy this etf. In the coming days I will make a post about several interesting American funds and tqqq in particular.
I think everyone is already aware of the trash that happened, in case you haven’t seen it - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDkztLMNK9k - interview founder of Tinkoff Dudu. I’m not a fan of Yuri’s work, but in any case, you need to watch the video, if only for the sake of the interview with the founder of Tinkoff. I think it’s not only and not so much about Tinkoff Bank specifically, but in principle about business in Russia. And accordingly about investments in this business. About how Oleg built the coolest bank in the country in a few years. About how in this country everything can change in a day, and not in your favor and regardless of you.
How Potanin Bank will now be managed is unknown. Rebranding, as well as the retirement of the founder of Tinkoff specifically, will not affect anything, since approximately from 2014-15. Oleg made decisions only on the overall strategy, while Hughes and the team were in charge of operational activities and development. The trust of the founder of Tinkoff had a 35% share, that is, in theory, the new owner will also not have a controlling stake (probably there will be a majority of voting stocks). However, at the end of April, Pavel Fedorov and Oliver Hughes, who were directly involved in business development, left the bank. Can we hope that TCS will repeat the fate of Apple and, after the departure of the founder (and in our case, the key people who built the company from scratch), will continue to grow and develop rapidly? I would like to believe in a fairy tale, but in Russian realities this is unlikely.
Tomorrow the bank will report on the first quarter and in theory everything should be normal. But. I will not be purchasing any more stocks, and I will also be watching the reports very closely in the coming quarters. Why - because, as practice shows, Russia is not America, and here Buffett’s “buy Coca-Cola and hold for 50 years” strategy does not work. Geopolitics will now naturally be factored into the price of TCS stocks, and the exit of non-residents may drop the price. In any case, with normal reports they should grow to 7-8k per share. If there is a strong drop in performance, I will think about selling.
Ideas
May 17, 2022