Good evening!
Over the past 2 months I have made only 1 transaction - 14.01 +13pcs Zynex, $8.38. Current portfolio - https://intelinvest.ru/public-portfolio/210131 (leverage 200k).
1) TCS – 22.84% (-1.86%)
2) Redsun - 16.8% (+4.4%)
3) KWG – 9.94% (-2.94%)
4) Zynex - 9.73% (-1.85%)
5) Times - 9.48% (+0.4%)
6) Yandex - 8.94% (-1.33%)
7) Baozun - 7.05% (+0.85%)
8) Baidu - 3.24% (+1%)
Over the past 2021, the Tinkof brokerage result was -1.5%, positions in Hong Kong at the end of the year were at a loss of ~50%. I can’t accurately calculate the total profitability for the year, because I still have an account in Sberbank with HHRU stocks and part of the funds belongs to investors on Interactive Brokers. I tentatively record a loss of -25% for 2021. For comparison, over the same period, the SBMX ETF (on the MICEX index) grew +12%, AKNX (Nasdaq) +27.37% in $, SBSP ETF (on the S&P 500) +22.91% in $. In total, a strategy to buy and hold any of these indices for the period of 2021 (especially the American market) would be much more profitable for me than sitting up to my ears in China).
A quick look at current positions and their fate in 2022 and beyond
1) TCS. It is diving deeply at the moment against the backdrop of a general decline in stock markets and the Russian Federation in particular. In fact, it’s not always time for one stock to drag the entire falling portfolio into at least the positive zone; it’s time to rest ☺️. But seriously, on the horizon of the next few years, I personally have no doubts about the positive dynamics of revenue and profit of Oleg Yuryevich’s company, so I’m not worried about TCS at all, the return of Tinkoff Bank stocks to 8kr+ per share is a matter of time. By the way, according to the discounting of future flows (DCF) model from SimplyWallStreet, the fundamental value of the company is now at the level of 5173 RUB per share. I believe that if we dive below 3500-3000 RUB, there will be an opportunity to consider purchases.
2) Baozun. The company is a disappointment based on the results of 2021. What is especially sad is that at first, according to the company’s reports, everything was rosy, the stock fell down, and only then very weak reports began to be released. The 3rd quarter brought losses for the first time in the last 5 years. When I made positive forecasts for Baozun, in 2021 analysts predicted at least 300 million yuan of net profit, in fact for the floating 12 months we have +28.7 million CNY, EPS = 0.379 CNY. In early March there will be a report for the full year 21, the expected results are depressing: an average forecast of -2.2 CNY per share and a loss of -166 million CNY for the year. Forecasts for 2022 for EPS have a range of 1.12 - 12.91, I can make such forecasts myself 😃
3) Zynex. The stock has also been falling all year, but the company's results are positive. The annual report is expected on 23.02, the EPS forecast is ~$0.58 per share, which gives an increase of almost 60% for the year. At the end of 21, there was news that Zynex would lose a client - a large insurance company that provides a significant share of revenue; it has not yet been possible to find out how true they are. Perhaps something will become clearer after the annual report.
4) Hong Kong as a whole - there were no reports for the 3rd quarter, and therefore the real impact of the situation with Evergrande on the industry is difficult to assess. KWG and Times stocks have been successfully going down over the past six months, my positions in them dropped to -60%. Redsun has practically not changed in price, perhaps due to the fact that more than 70% belongs to the parent company or brokers do not sell stocks for short, I don’t know) According to KWG, at the level of 3 HKD per share, PE = 9 and the cash is 50% of the company’s capitalization. Yesterday KWG rose by 25% and in general there is a possibility that the bottom will be formed. Maybe I'll buy some more in the near future. Annual reports for Hong Kong are expected in March, the same as last year. Naturally, I will keep an eye on them.
Expectations for 2022 are grandiose, at least I expect the main positions in China and Hong Kong to return to the break-even zone. At the moment there are no free funds, plus the leverage is 200k, so I don’t plan to make any purchases yet. But, as noted above, according to KWG, a situation arises where the cash on the company’s balance sheet is half of the capitalization. This is a lot and the company looks greatly undervalued. Maybe I'll buy more.
Ideas
January 21, 2022