Hi everyone! As promised, here's a fresh deep dive on TCS Group with the 2023 results and a summary across 2017–2023. I'm not actively recommending TCSG (I'm not), but I last did a piece like this on March 20, 2020 (4 years ago!), and it was interesting to re-read it and compare the predicted vs. actual earnings trajectory.
All numbers — including the latest profit and asset figures — are in the linked spreadsheet.
At the time of the original 2020 post, the latest available results were for 2019: EPS 193.62 RUB. SimplyWallStreet's forecast went out to end of 2023 and projected 403.87 RUB. That's basic EPS — current diluted EPS is 395.24, basic is 405.08. Almost sniper-level accuracy. Pity that not all forecasts are this good.
Over four years TCSG added 108% in earnings per share. Is the current price fair? Hard to say — depends on the reference point. In November 2021 TCSG hit ~7300 RUB; profit has grown nicely since then but the share price is still in roughly a 50% drawdown. Take instead the launch of TCSG locally in late October 2019 — price was 1206 RUB and EPS for 2019 was 190.05. EPS today is 2.08x that, the price is 2.62x — so by that reference TCSG looks somewhat overvalued. Across 2 years EPS grew 25.5%, which is essentially in line with realised inflation.
The company is no longer fast-growing. What happens after the takeover by Rosbank is the next open question — the merged structure and its effect on per-share metrics need more work, and I'll come back to that in a separate post.