The month turned out to be very eventful with news and events.

Good afternoon!

The month turned out to be very eventful with news and events. In the post I will briefly outline all the points with links to the telegraph for detailed analysis.

1) Tinkoff Bank reported for 2021, the report is fire - earnings per share growth by 42%, growth of free funds on the balance sheet and we expect growth of at least a third over the next 2 years. Current P/E = 10, accordingly, the company, from my point of view, is extremely attractive at current levels (3274r TCSG) and below.

Analysis of indicators and my view on the bank’s prospects - https://telegra.ph/Otchet-Tinkoff-za-2021-04-09


2) Also reported for 2021 Baozun. And everything is very bad here. There are currently 101 stocks in the portfolio, with a total exposure of less than 5%. I won’t buy more, keep it - yes. Analysis of the report and the company's prospects - https://telegra.ph/Otchet-Baozun-za-2021-04-10

3) Hong Kong companies also reported for 2021. The best of all is KWG, slightly below average expectations, but overall within the forecasts and worthy. The company looks greatly undervalued; overall, I won’t aggressively increase it, but I will definitely keep it and simply have to grow. Redsun's results were slightly worse - profit growth was 50%, but still worse than expected. Based on the current drawdown, Redsun is better than other companies; there is hope for good growth in the next 1-2 years. The Times is doing the worst of all - over the past six months they have generally been marking time, the result is worse than forecasts.

Analysis:

KWG Group Holdings (3913 HKEX) - https://telegra.ph/KWG-Living-Group-Holdings---otchet-za-2021-i-perspektivy-04-10

Redsun Services Group (1971 HKEX) - https://telegra.ph/Redsun-Services-Group---otchet-za-2021-i-perspektivy-04-10

Times Neighborhood Holdings (9928 HKEX) - https://telegra.ph/Times-Neighborhood-Holdings-04-10



Based on the current situation on the market, I think everyone knows that the ruble has drawn a “Kremlin” figure and returned to the beginning of February; over the weekend, USDRUB shows 76.08. Starting Monday, the 12% commission for physicists to buy dollars and euros will be canceled, so I think spreads from brokers and banks will be much smaller than last month, and this is an excellent opportunity to buy.

My top 3 investment ideas for right now:

1) Shares of the founder of Tinkoff - there is a review above and I have mentioned them many times. After all, this is the largest position in the portfolio right now. I recommend buying, levels 8000-9000 on TCSG are just a matter of time. There is an opinion that we need to wait for non-residents to exit the stocks, who, despite the company’s fundamentals and the absence of sanctions, will still most likely exit, simply because the company is Russian. Quite a reasonable point of view. Buy now or perhaps wait a little and buy cheaper - your choice. I don’t know where the minimum will be, so I bought it earlier for 2700 RUB (I wrote in the last post).

2) Currency and foreign exchange assets. Now a lot of information is pouring in from all sides, and people have diametrically opposed views. Most of all, the patriots (real or Olgin's) are annoying, shouting about the dollar for 30 RUB, the bending of America, cutting off Europe from gas, the final collapse of the damned Pindos and dollar. Like, now we will sell/buy everything for RUB/yuan/Iranian reals/pesos/add something else to your liking, and we no longer need any currency, we will get up from our knees, raise production, long live import substitution, etc., etc.

In fact, many of the ideas are really cool, just without sarcasm. To become a strong economy, to depend less on others, to produce more domestically – these are super ideas! The question is, where have they been, excuse me, for the last 20-30 years? Why couldn’t this be done systematically and gradually, develop production, make our own, high-quality and inexpensive, why do they start talking about this only when the PT happens and there are simply no other options?

In general, I don’t want to delve into politics and geopolitics (and I can sit down for such thoughts now), I’ll outline the picture from my point of view in terms of economics and investment: