Good afternoon!
In 99.9% of the time, updating the broker's application every minute does not provide any advantage; rather, on the contrary, the psyche is swayed by constantly moving numbers and market noise; under the influence of constantly changing emotions, you can make a bunch of transactions and regret them later. But today seems to be just the day of 0.01% when it is useful to monitor opportunities that appear for literally a few minutes, which may not exist later.
As for the portfolio - for Hong Kong and China, I am waiting for the March reports, there are no changes in positions and are not planned.
Since February, I have not left a persistent feeling of deja vu, as if I had already seen this somewhere. This is the case in 2014. Clowning on TV, again helping someone to disconnect/join. Assurances that the West is all bad, and we are incredibly good. For those who haven’t seen it, I definitely recommend watching it, it’s a really well-spent hour - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8KPOhtgYVY. Take a look and you will understand that no one knows what will happen to the foreign exchange market tomorrow. And if he does know, he will lie blatantly to his face, under oath, whatever he wants.
On February 22, he increased his leverage by +300 tr and bought a dollar at 80.67 RUB average. Impulsive deal? Yes, but as I wrote above, a persistent feeling of deja vu did not leave me (and still does not leave me). I have known for a long time that the dollar has a direct potential to go to 100 (this is obvious), it is very difficult to predict the exact exchange rate, just remember our dear head of the Central Bank Sakhipzadovna. But now I have 80% of my portfolio in dollar assets, the maximum USD/RUB even in the event of full-scale hostilities (which is unlikely to come to that) is 120 RUB. After everything settles down, I think it will be no more than 100 RUB per dollar. The Central Bank has large reserves, I think they will try to put out the fire in the market. What gives an upside at the rate of a maximum of 30%. This is my personal opinion.
Now the entire Russian market has been flooded incredibly heavily, and there seem to be a lot of quite interesting stories here. Sberbank for 90 RUB - possible. Yandex for 2500r? It also seems good, but now I will look exclusively towards TCSG, here everything is clear to me with the company and prospects. There is no way that something that actually costs 6000-7000 costs less than 3000. This is clearly a case of selling a dollar for 50 cents. At the time of writing, at 13:11, the price in London is $31 per share, 2635 in RUB. In the application of the founder of Tinkoff there is now 3038 RUB and trading is frozen. We are waiting for the reduction and I hope we will be able to take some amount. The dollar fixed 100k out of 300 with a minimum profit (5%), perhaps I will close more. As I already noted, it is profitable to hold the currency due to geopolitics, but the potential profit is limited, it is unlikely to be higher than 30%, and the head of the Central Bank will most likely not allow it to go that far. But for stocks the potential is much higher. Moreover, nothing has happened to the business and is unlikely to happen, it’s just panic. A little later I will write the results and post the current portfolio.
Take care of yourself!
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Update 13:45 Moscow time
I bought additional 60 stocks, the average is about 2700 RUB per share, later I will give accurate information on the portfolio
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If you buy, do it without leverage, especially if you don’t have much experience. Because margin requirements can be reduced at any time and you can hold stocks purchased with your own at any price level, and for those purchased on leverage you may receive a margin call.
Ideas
February 24, 2022