Ideas March 13, 2020

What currency to invest in

What currency to invest in?

Which countries’ stocks of companies are most profitable for an investor in the Russian Federation to invest in? Two Russian stock exchanges - Moscow and St. Petersburg. List of securities traded on the Moscow Exchange - https://www.moex.com/ru/listing/securities-list.aspx. St. Petersburg - http://stocks.spbexchange.ru/
If we talk about stocks, you can buy mainly Russian, American, European and Chinese companies. There are also funds specializing in securities of developing and third world markets; in my blog I will focus mainly on the analysis of issuers from the Russian Federation, the USA and China.

Let's consider the returns of indices of various countries for the periods: from 2013, from 2007 and 1999. (the average annual return in US dollars 💵 on MSCI indices is shown).

The leading dynamics of the indices of developing countries (column from 1999) is largely due to the effect “low base”, for example, in the late 90s, the Russian stock market was just emerging, so the growth was impressive.

In the previous post, I looked at the MICEX index, which reflects the dynamics of stocks of the largest Russian companies. It is accounted for in RUB; its analogue, traded in dollars, is the RTS index. If you look at the dynamics of the RTS, the picture is very sad: taking into account the current fall of the ruble against currencies and the situation on the stock market, we are at the level of 2005, that is, due to depreciation, the real return in foreign currency for 15 years is zero 😐